Carat forecasts market recovery in all regions in 2014
Continued growth of 3% for 2013, accelerating to 4.5% in 2014
Carat, the world's leading independent media communications agency, today publishes its updated forecasts for worldwide advertising expenditure in 2013 and 2014.
Based on data received from 57 markets around the world, Carat's data shows continued positive momentum for global advertising expenditure in 2013 and 2014. Carat predicts global advertising expenditure will grow by +3% in 2013, a slight decline from the +3.7% predicted in March 2013, and global advertising spend forecast for 2014 will grow by +4.5%, also down fractionally from the previous forecast of +5.0% in March 2013.
Predictions for 2013 are lower than previously forecast due to a slower upturn of the global economy; however the expectation of market recovery to positive growth in all regions in 2014 is predicted. After two consecutive years of market decline, Western Europe is predicted to experience a slow and gradual recovery even in markets registering double digit decline in 2013, such as Greece and Portugal.
Confidence in the post-Olympics UK economy is reflected in the country's strong performance and resulting in an increase of +3.6% year-on-year growth in 2013, rising to a predicted +5.0% in 2014.
By media, Digital spend continues to outpace all other media with the highest year-on-year growth rate of +15.6% in 2013, more than +10% higher than any other media and a trend which is expected to continue as emerging markets, such as Brazil adopt a more digital approach. Digital spend predictions continues to meet expectations of taking one out of every five dollars from the advertising wallet in 2014.
|Year on year % growth at current prices
||Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Mar 2013
Commenting on the Carat forecasts, Jerry Buhlmann CEO of Aegis Media and Dentsu Aegis Network, said:
'Carat's latest ad spend forecasts highlight the positive momentum and global growth for 2013, a year which has proven extremely challenging for some markets to maintain their 2012 ad spend levels, in light of the poor recovery of the global economy. In parallel to this, the new trend of a three-speed world is reinforced, with the rates of growth in the faster growing markets remaining ahead of steadily recovering markets, such as the US, followed by the struggling Eurozone markets.
"Looking ahead, Carat's forecasts do however predict that we are at a significant point of change with all regions expected to see a steady recovery in 2014, even those currently experiencing deep declines for 2013.
The forecasts also reinforce the strength of digital media in today's world and the upward direction of its market share, a media which is somewhat untouchable from the current, uncertain economic conditions. This buoyant and alluring media is attracting a crowded market, but for those with focused and specialist offerings, and the scale and reach to provide innovative and integrated solutions, the future of digital and the whole of the advertising industry remains exciting and enticing."
||Global Director of Communications
||020 7550 3469
||Corporate Communications Manager
||020 7070 7751
||Marketing Manager, Carat
||0207 430 6151
Notes to Editors
Digital: 'Digital Advertising' or 'Digital Media' or 'Digital' includes advertising spend from Search, Display, Online Video, Social Media and Mobile.
Methodology: Carat's advertising expenditure forecasts are compiled from data which is collated from around the Carat network and based on Carat's local market expertise. We use a bottom-up approach, with forecasts provided for 57 markets covering the Americas, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Rest of World by medium - Television, Newspapers, Magazines, Radio, Cinema, Out-of-Home and Digital Media. The advertising spend figures are provided net of negotiated discounts and with agency commission deducted, in current prices and in local currency. For global and regional figures we convert the figures centrally into USD with the average exchange rate. The forecasts are produced bi-annually with actual figures for the previous year and latest forecasts for the current and following year.
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